The most likely impact of the two ceasefires is for all parties to avoid returning to war. The risk of one blown ceasefire leading to another will weigh heavily on their minds.
Hezbollah, Israel and Lebanon
For the Islamist militant group, armed struggle now looks like a dead end. Its future in Gaza depends on the civilian politburo.
President Joe Biden confused Palestinian militant group Hamas with Hezbollah while announcing a ceasefire to the Israel-Hamas war on Wednesday.
These groups are organic and homegrown, unlike the Islamic State or Al Qaeda, which have relied heavily on fighters from abroad. Hamas and Hezbollah will replenish their ranks with locals.
Hamas top official Osama Hamadan on Sunday laud Hezbollah for its decision to back the resistance in Gaza, as he hailed support fronts in Yemen and Iraq.
In a rare move hours after the cease-fire took effect, one senior Hamas official said the group wants to engage the new Trump administration.
Hamas faces an uncertain future post-ceasefire, grappling with leadership losses, declining foreign support, and strained relations with Palestinian factions. Amid pragmatic concessions and resistance rhetoric,
A key opportunity lies in Mediterranean natural gas deposits, which could provide economic relief and energy security for Lebanon and the world as a whole.
The Israeli military’s pursuit of 'total victory' in Gaza and Lebanon will instead guarantee the survival of Hamas and Hezbollah.